A brief history of recent Edmonton Oilers’ blueline injury epidemics

Assuming that emergency recall David Musil plays against the Calgary Flames on Saturday, he will be the 13th defenceman to dress for the Edmonton Oilers in 2014-15. Edmonton has not traded for any defencemen in that time, and only sent away one (Jeff Petry) in trade themselves; all of the other decisions have been made due to injuries.

It’s the third time in the last decade that we’ve seen Edmonton’s blue line decimated by injury, and a comparison between the current situation and the injury troubles in 2006-07 and 2009-10 is instructive.

2006-07 Oil D

The chart above shows Edmonton’s prospect(-ish) defencemen outside of the top-six to play in 2006-07. Two of the six went on to have decent NHL careers. In a managerial miscalculation, effective shutdown man Jan Hejda was snatched away by Scott Howson and the Columbus Blue Jackets immediately. Tom Gilbert’s legacy is more interesting; he was trade for Nick Schultz, who was traded for a draft pick, which in turn was dealt for the rights to Nikita Nikitin. It’s a trade chain that’s a pretty reasonable shorthand for the corresponding time period in Oilers history.

But what we’re actually looking at here is the players brought up. In a cost-cutting move, Edmonton at the time lacked an AHL affiliate. Kevin Lowe tends to get the blame both for the action and for the consequences of it, but one wonders how much say he really had; it’s hard to imagine an NHL G.M. willingly forfeiting his farm team. Whatever the reality of the situation, as far as I can tell every defenceman in the Oilers’ professional system played in the NHL in 2006-07; that’s why the team had to recall Sebastian Bisaillon straight out of junior.

All things considered, this was a pretty reasonable prospect group in terms of quality. Two good prospects (I’m using the term loosely for Hejda, an older European player) made it and another (Mathieu Roy) might have if not for injury. Even Danny Syvret has had a nice career as a power play man in the AHL. The big problem was that the depth was non-existent, which goes back to not having a farm team to stock with guys like Brad Hunt.

In 2009-10, the situation was different. A farm team ensured the Oilers had ample bodies; there were even some players (shaded in grey) that the team didn’t use. But the same level of quality didn’t exist.

2009-10 Oil D

I’ve never seen a season quite like Taylor Chorney’s 2009-10. Long Edmonton’s most-touted defensive prospect, the model defenceman for the “new” NHL, he failed to deliver in spectacular fashion. Most teams wouldn’t have embarrassed the player by using him the way the Oilers did, but Edmonton in this era was the dream of every “just play the kids” internet commentator. Chorney’s minus-41 rating (minus-20 in 32 AHL games, minus-21 in 42 NHL games) was incredible but the thing people really remember was The Shift, alongside veteran depth option Jason Strudwick, who was in the final seasons of a distinguished 700-odd game NHL career:

Steve Tambellini takes a lot of flak for his work as Edmonton’s G.M., and deservedly so, but this chart is also a helpful illustration of what he had to work with. Chorney, along with Alex Plante, Jeff Petry and Theo Peckham were supposed to be the bright young future of the Oilers blue line; only Petry turned out and in 2009-10 he hadn’t started his entry-level deal yet. The rest mostly missed, though Peckham had some decent moments on a pairing with Gilbert. In retrospect that perhaps says more about the veteran than the rookie.

Leaving aside that quartet and AHL veteran Dean Arsene, there wasn’t much there. Jordan Bendfeld was always more of a prospect in the enforcer sense than in the player sense. Cody Wild played tough competition in the AHL for a time and had decent college numbers, leading some (myself very much included) suggest the Oilers were wrong to rate the struggling Chorney ahead of him. The Oilers were not wrong. Johan Motin was always a longshot, and he’s done well to carve out a career in Sweden’s top league (interestingly, he’s still just 25 and playing 20 minutes per game in the SHL).

That brings us to the present.

2014-15 Oil D

In terms of depth, this is the best of the three groups we’ve looked at, in large part because of the Oilers’ success in adding undrafted free agents like Brad Hunt and Jordan Oesterle. Martin Gernat certainly would have played in 2006-07 and probably in 2009-10 as well; this year even now he’d likely be behind Dillon Simpson and Oesterle on the recall list.

In terms of quality, we don’t know the answer yet, particularly if we exclude Darnell Nurse (who played two games to start the year but is now back in junior) and Oscar Klefbom (I counted him as a regular, owing to his 56-and-counting NHL games this season) from consideration. Is there a Gilbert or a Petry on this list? What about a Hejda? I don’t see that player.

Martin Marincin is the best bet in my view, but he has a problem. Defencemen are generally expected to be either a) great in front of their own net or b) great at putting the puck in the opposition net. Marincin’s great strengths are from his own hashmarks out; he makes a good outlet pass, holds the defensive blue line brilliantly and rarely gets caught out of position in the neutral zone. He’s sort of the reverse Nikitin; the veteran Russian has a heavy shot and does better than he gets credit for in front of his own net but has been a comedy of errors in all of that space in between. Perhaps that’s why the two have been a relatively effective pairing.

Marincin, Musil and Brandon Davidson are all expected to play against Calgary on Saturday, with the pairings yet to be determined. My best guess is as follows:

4.4.15 Oil lines